American foreign policy experts agree that Ukraine’s relations with Russia will improve significantly after the victory of Viktor Yanukovych.

The relationship with Russia was one of the most important issues in the presidential campaign. Other salient issues included the future development of the nation’s gas pipeline network and the fate of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Ariel Cohen of the U.S.-based Heritage Foundation expressed the opinion that Russia will make efforts to gain control of Ukraine’s gas transmission system that supplies 80 percent of the gas that Gazprom delivers to its European clients.

Russia is also pursuing diplomatic negotiations to extend the Black Sea Fleet treaty until the year 2017. Pursuant to a 1997 bilateral treaty, Russia currently pays USD 98 million annually to keep its Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, and the treaty provides for an extension by mutual agreement.

Economists observing the situation in Ukraine note that the financial crisis profoundly touched the country’s population. Ukrainian economy continued to contract sharply in the third quarter of 2009. Real GDP fell 15.9 percent on year-on-year basis, after a fall of 17.8 percent in the previous quarter. Weak global demand undermined exports and manufacturing, at the same time as private consumption and investment remained in deep decline. A rebound is not expected soon, especially in view of exceptionally low domestic demand.

In the first round of elections Viktor Yanukovych took approximately 35.5 percent of the vote, and Yulia Tymoshenko received about 25 percent. Viktor Yushchenko got only 5.5 percent. In the second round, Yanukovych narrowly defeated Yulia Tymoshenko.